Unpacking the Jacob deGrom Signing
A deep dive into Jacob deGrom's career-defining relocation
Former Mets ace and two-time Cy Young award winner Jacob deGrom signed a five-year, $185 million contract with the Texas Rangers on Friday. This deal will make him the second-highest paid pitcher in baseball history, with a $37 million average annual value. It’s a move that will incite a ripple effect all across the league.
1. What went into deGrom’s decision?
There were seven teams I considered to be legitimate players in the Jacob deGrom sweepstakes: Mets, Yankees, Rangers, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Braves
And there are three major factors that play into most free agency decisions: location, contention and money.
Location
Staying with the Mets or moving across town to the Yankees would have provided the best situation, as he and his family would get to stay in their current city. The Braves, who are the closest team of the realistic possibilities to his hometown in Florida, also presented an interesting case.
deGrom has no ties to the state of Texas that would have given the Rangers an advantage, although Texas is one of three states with a Major League team that has no income tax.
Contention
The Dodgers, Mets, Braves and Yankees all won at least 99 games in 2022, and are all clearly viewed as contenders for the foreseeable future. The Giants, Cubs and Rangers, however, are not quite in that range. San Francisco finished at .500; the other two clubs well below. There is hope for all three to try to build a contender going forward, but there’s no guarantee.
Money
Any of the teams on the above list could have, in theory, paid what the Rangers did, All seven teams have either lots of space below the luxury tax threshold or owners willing to barrel through it. But, it seems, none of the other teams decided to fork up that kind of money or offer that many guaranteed years.
So deGrom’s decision *likely* came down to: the Rangers offered him the most total money to play in a state with no income tax. Can’t blame him for jumping at that opportunity.
2. Should the Mets have matched?
The Mets won 101 games in 2022– only six of those came when deGrom started. So you can look at that in two different ways. First, “the Mets can win without him!” Which… maybe! But the other perspective is “imagine what they could have done with a full season of baseball’s best pitcher over the last half-decade.” The roster is strong without deGrom – especially if they bring in a replacement – but they didn’t win the division, and certainly wouldn’t have without him. A healthy deGrom gives them the best chance of winning, but he is as risky as any high-level free agent has ever been, so it’s at least understandable why Steve Cohen and Billy Eppler may have been reluctant to hand out that kind of contract.
3. Where do the Mets go from here?
The Mets have a very strong foundation, but there are plenty of holes to fill. Only Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco are guaranteed rotation spots, and only Edwin Díaz and Drew Smith are locked into the bullpen. There is plenty of depth on both ends, but the team still has to add a good number of arms. Offensively, it’s probably just an outfielder – potentially still Brandon Nimmo – and some depth pieces.
As far as adding to the front of the rotation, there are three obvious candidates. Justin Verlander is the reigning AL Cy Young winner, but he will be 40 come Opening Day, and pairing him with Scherzer creates plenty of risk. Carlos Rodón has been dominant over the last two seasons since focusing primarily on his fastball/slider combination, but is 30 years old with a very deep injury history– he just set a career high with 178 innings pitched. Kodai Senga, who became a free agent this offseason after 11 years with NPB’s SoftBank Hawks, offers electric stuff, but there is always inherent risk when it comes to a 30-year-old who has never faced big league hitters.
Any of these pitchers would likely make the Mets significantly better in 2023 – and potentially beyond – but Rodón probably best fits what the team needs atop its rotation. New York hasn’t had a front-line left-hander since Johan Santana in the late 2000s.
4. How unprecedented was this move?
Since Kevin Brown earned the first $100 million contract in baseball history in 1999, 34 such contracts have been handed out to starting pitchers (including Brown). Thirteen of those deals saw the player sign an extension or re-sign with his previous team, and eight more came after the player was traded at the deadline as a rental.
Here are the remaining 13 free agent contracts:
Only five other pitchers downgraded by even a third of what deGrom is doing. Three of those came at a time when most teams weren’t handing out those contracts so options were more limited, and although Gausman technically went to a worse situation by these standards, the Blue Jays did win 11 more games than the Giants in his first year in Toronto.
Additionally, deGrom is one of four players to leave the team that drafted him and get a nine-figure deal elsewhere.
deGrom and Zito are the only two to fit into both categories, and at least Zito stayed in the Bay Area.
You just don’t see a player at or near the top of his game leave the team with which he’s spent his entire career to move across the country and join a team that won 33 fewer games in the previous season. It just doesn’t happen. Until now, of course.
5. A Mets fan’s perspective
It’s a tough pill to swallow, no doubt about it. Regardless of the impact this move will have on the field, every Mets fan is a bit heartbroken this weekend. But deGrom is gone, and there’s a decision to be made regarding how to approach the remainder of his career.
On one hand, you want to root for deGrom. Especially with him landing with a team that’s not in the NL East and also not the Yankees. But a strong, healthy couple of seasons from deGrom in another uniform would be undeniably difficult to watch– particularly if the Mets don’t win the World Series during that time.
On the other hand, while it may give fans some peace of mind that ownership made the right choice, no one wants to see deGrom struggle with health or effectiveness. It’s a lose-lose situation for Mets fans who long believed he would be a one-franchise player.
6. Quantifying deGrom’s career
All of this said, it’s been an absolute blessing to watch Jacob deGrom in a Mets uniform these past nine seasons. Just how incredible was his tenure in Queens? Let’s take a look from four different angles- how his first 209 starts compare to those of all pitchers since 1920, how he stacks up to the rest of the league since his debut, how dominant he was from 2018-2021, and where he currently falls on all-time lists.
Since 1920, 583 pitchers have made 209 starts. Few have had a better first 209 career starts than deGrom, with the most strikeouts (1,607) and the third-lowest ERA (2.52), behind only Tom Seaver and Clayton Kershaw.
Through those first 209 starts, deGrom has a record 128 outings with at least six innings and no more than two earned runs allowed. Kershaw is second with 125, followed by Seaver and Dwight Gooden, each with 119.
Since 2014, when deGrom debuted, 150 pitchers have started at least 100 games. Over that span, he ranks second in ERA+ (155), fourth in K-BB% (25.0%), second in bWAR (41.1) and third in average game score (62.7). Only Kershaw and Scherzer have a compelling case against deGrom being the best pitcher in baseball since his debut.
deGrom was undoubtedly the best pitcher by a wide margin from 2018 through his injury in 2021, posting a 1.94 ERA, 205 ERA+ and 2.14 FIP over 581 IP. The top three in each category:
ERA
Jacob deGrom- 1.94
Justin Verlander- 2.56
Max Scherzer- 2.74
ERA+
Jacob deGrom- 205
Justin Verlander- 172
Mike Soroka, 159
FIP
Jacob deGrom- 2.14
Max Scherzer- 2.77
Chris Sale- 2.78
Specifically, deGrom was enjoying the most dominant season in baseball history in 2021 before his elbow injury. Here are the single-season ERA+ leaders since 1900 (min. 90 IP):
Jacob deGrom- 373 (2021)
Pedro Martínez- 291 (2000)
Greg Maddux- 271 (1994)
And the single-season K% leaderboard:
Jacob deGrom- 41.7% (2021)
Gerrit Cole- 34.0% (2019)
Pedro Martínez- 33.1% (1999)
And finally, looking at the bigger picture, a quick scan at the career ERA+ leaders since 1900 (min. 1000 IP) tells you all you need to know about deGrom’s productivity:
Clayton Kershaw, 156
Jacob deGrom, 155
Pedro Martínez, 154
Lefty Grove, 148
Walter Johnson, 147
He also ranks first in K%, K-BB% and FIP, and is the only pitcher with a career WHIP under 1.00.
deGrom doesn’t have the longevity of guys like Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens – or even Pedro Martinez and Clayton Kershaw – but by all accounts, he is already one of the best pitchers in baseball history.
Given his age and health issues, it’s unclear if deGrom can recreate any of that dominance during his five years in Texas. But the Rangers are getting a future Hall of Famer and a must-watch arm whenever he takes the mound. And with this signing, they are letting their fans know they’re making a push right now.