The Orioles are Content, for Some Reason

Baltimore has failed to address its weak starting rotation this offseason

The Baltimore Orioles won 101 games in 2023, just two years removed from a 110-loss season and five years after managing the second-worst record of the last 60 years (and the third-most losses of the last 100 years).

It was the fifth-best season, by record, in 123 years of the organization, and the best since 1979.

But a 100-win team that is reliant on an incredibly young core, outperformed its Pythagorean Win-Loss record by seven games and won a whopping 30 one-run contests can reasonably be expected to endure some regression. Especially without making any real offseason moves.

Other than Félix Bautista, who underwent Tommy John surgery in October, Kyle Gibson and Aaron Hicks are the most impactful players who will not or may not return to the team in 2024. But Craig Kimbrel, Jonathan Heasley and Sam Hilliard have been their only 40-man additions.

Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson are budding superstars. Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, Austin Hays and Ryan Mountcastle are strong veteran bats. Jordan Westburg is already a solid, young contributor. There isn’t much depth at the Major League level, but a plethora of mid-level bench players remain available on the free agent market—not to mention the handful of Orioles minor leaguers waiting in the wings.

Even if baseball’s consensus top prospect Jackson Holliday breaks camp with the big league club, five of Baltimore’s top 10-ish prospects — outfielders Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad; infielders Coby Mayo, Joey Ortiz and Connor Norby — are projected to be left off the Opening Day 26-man roster despite reaching at least Triple-A last season.

That doesn’t even include 19-year-old catcher Samuel Basallo, who rocketed up to Double-A in 2023 and is considered to be a top 10 prospect in all of baseball. It also doesn’t include Enrique Bradfield, Dylan Beavers, Mac Horvath and Jud Fabian— four college position players selected within the top 70 picks of the last two drafts.

The Orioles have an embarrassment of riches on the position player side of things.

Meanwhile, the current projected starting rotation leaves a lot to be desired. Kyle Bradish enjoyed a legitimate breakout campaign, and should be expected to sit atop the rotation going forward, but the metrics definitely show some concern. He’s displayed two excellent breaking balls, but his fastball doesn’t miss bats and gets hit quite hard.

Former top prospect Grayson Rodriguez faltered a bit as a rookie, but his size and raw stuff remain compelling, so a breakout campaign is well within his reach.

Dean Kremer is nothing more than a back-end guy whose curveball, sweeper and cutter all got hammered last year. He limits walks but has well-below-average stuff.

John Means and Cole Irvin are a pair of 30-year-old lefties with underwhelming stuff who have missed time over the last year or two to injuries.

In the minors, it’s not much better. At least not beyond DL Hall, who impressed in a brief relief stint last year and is expected to begin the season in the bullpen.

Cade Povich, Chayce McDermott and Seth Johnson are the club’s next top three pitching prospects. There’s potential there, but each of the three walked nearly 15 percent of batters faced in 2023 and come with varying degrees of reliever risk. All three were acquired via trade— Baltimore simply hasn’t drafted arms under Mike Elias.

And yet… no offseason additions to the rotation. Not a single one, despite the surplus of young talent on the other side that could secure a top-end starter.

Deals for the expiring contracts of Shane Bieber or Corbin Burnes were never going to happen. But Dylan Cease is likely available with two years of control remaining. As is Jesús Luzardo, with three.

Both the White Sox and Marlins could use young talent anywhere on the offensive side of the ball. Any of Mayo, Cowser and Kjerstad would be an immediate boost to either lineup.

The Mariners also feel like an obvious trade partner, with at least one of Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo and Emerson Hancock on the outside looking in on Seattle’s rotation.

Seattle has a bit of a logjam in the outfield and at DH following the additions of Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger and Luke Raley, but the infield has some massive holes. Mayo and Westburg could be of interest to Jerry Dipoto— as could Ortiz and Norby at a lower price.

Now, it wouldn’t be difficult to understand why Elias and Co. may want to hold onto that excess position player talent. Players get hurt, prospects don’t an out, etc. In that case, why haven’t the Orioles signed any starters this offseason?

Again, no one expected Baltimore to be in Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto. But Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Lucas Giolito, Jack Flaherty, Marcus Stroman, Shota Imanaga and Seth Lugo are all viable, mid-rotation arms who have been signed to deals worth less than $20 million a year. Even Sonny Gray or Eduardo Rodriguez would have been incredibly reasonable on the three- and four-year deals they signed, respectively. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are still out there.

But nope, no starters. Only a 36-year-old Craig Kimbrel.

Backup catcher James McCann is currently the highest-paid Oriole at $12.15 million, and $8 million of that is being paid by the New York Mets. Only two other players — Kimbrel and Santander — are scheduled to earn at least $10 million, and no one else will even make $7 million.

With so much of the roster on rookie contracts, this should be the optimal time to make a splash. Instead, the Orioles have sat on their hands for the entire winter.

Amassing a bottom three payroll the year after winning 100 games is incomprehensible. Especially if you want to compete in a loaded AL East.